Dave Lee
A big question Apple analysts are asking is: how many consumers are waiting for the iPhone Duo?
The answer is hugely important to Apple’s stock this year and beyond. The new iPhone Pro range has been out for nearly three weeks, and from the get-go analysts noted somewhat flat consumer interest compared with last year’s Pro models.
One theory is that a significant number of would-be buyers are waiting for Apple’s new foldable model, which doesn’t come out until October 23.
If that’s true, then it’s good news for Apple, its investors and the company’s new chief executive officer, John Ternus – who would love a breakout hit to begin his tenure. At a starting price of $3499 in Australia, the Duo would boost the iPhone’s average selling price – a key metric watched by Wall Street. Add the signal that Duo’s success would suggest Apple still has the innovative “juice,” as they say, and the stock could build on what’s already been a banner 12 months – up 22 per cent since the start of the year.
But if it’s not the case, and consumers are just holding off on an upgrade altogether, Apple’s bold attempt to breathe new life into its most important product will appear to have fallen flat, a sign that even Apple couldn’t bring the potentially lucrative foldable form factor to the masses.
For clues on what’s going on with the iPhone, analysts look to a simple but imperfect metric: wait times for delivery when customers try to buy a device. When the new iPhone Pro was available to pre-order, analysts at both Bank of America and UBS observed muted demand compared with last year’s models.
“Globally, on average, ship time for the iPhone 18 Pro is currently at 14 days (vs. 18 days for iPhone 17 Pro) while iPhone 18 Pro Max stands at 18 days (vs. 25 days last year),” the Bank of America noted at the time.
Sales of the Duo will be a fraction of the more than 250 million iPhones that Apple is expected to ship this year, but those sales will cement any perception of whether Apple’s top product still has room to grow.
UBS saw a smaller difference but the same trend: muted demand for the iPhone 18 Pro. “While we acknowledge the possibility that muted wait times for the Pro and Pro Max could suggest consumers are delaying their purchase decisions for the Duo,” its analysts wrote, “we believe that the $US1999 ($2862) starting price could limit incremental unit upside.” (In other words: Don’t count on it being Duo demand holding the Pro back.)
In the couple of weeks since, UBS has noted an uptick in demand for the Pro and Pro Max – that is, a lengthening of delivery times. It is an imperfect metric. Apple might have just had more inventory ready to go this year compared with 2025. And this is the first year that Apple has split the launch of its premium and basic tiers into different seasons – the less expensive non-Pro iPhones come out next year – so inventory management might be a little more straightforward.
But it also might be the case that some consumers have been turned off by the $US100 price increases across the board for Apple’s flagship products, mainly caused by the ballooning cost of memory. The company and the carriers it works with have been trying to soften the blow by increasing trade-in value of old devices and introducing new payment options, most notably Apple’s new leasing program. It still may not be enough.
A poor iPhone cycle is bad for Apple’s stock unless something significant elsewhere in its business – such as its services segment – is able to offset the news. This year’s offset, if iPhone Pro sales require one, could be a frenzy at Apple’s glistening stores across the world, as users clamour for the iPhone Duo when it’s released. Apple would need IDC’s estimate of 10 million iPhone Duos sold in the first 12 months to be on the money. To reach that, Apple will need to overcome reported manufacturing challenges that could impact initial supply. Then again, a headline-grabbing shortage of a hot new product has its upside. Sales of the Duo will be a fraction of the more than 250 million iPhones that Apple is expected to ship this year, but those sales will cement any perception of whether Apple’s top product still has room to grow.
As it happened, I spent more than an hour at Apple’s downtown Brooklyn store recently, waiting on a repair to my iPhone 15 Pro which, like its owner, is ageing but still sufficiently capable. As I sat, to my right was a table of glowing iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, attracting only limited interest. Other than different colours and incremental improvements to the camera and battery, there’s nothing much to see. Yet, I heard at least three people inquire about the iPhone Duo.
“Are you getting a lot of that?” I asked the staff member when she came to help me. “Oh yeah,” she laughed. “All day.” Whether those kinds of customers are ready to spend, or are just curious, will set the mood for Apple this year.
Bloomberg
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